Like the nation as a whole, the economic fortunes of the counties poised to decide November’s election are starting to show early signs of distress.
From Reno, Nevada, to the Midwest to the suburbs of Atlanta, unemployment rates that were recently at all-time lows have begun to creep back up. Meanwhile, housing costs have exploded in these regions, creating divides between homeowners and renters.
In other words, these seven counties — part of NBC News’ “The Deciders” project — are microcosms of the U.S. economy writ large.
This article also uses the NBC News Home Buyer Index, which looks at cost, competition, scarcity and economic instability to determine how difficult it is to buy in every county across the U.S. Judged on a scale of 0-100, a higher value indicates a higher difficulty. The national score is 85.3.
Many of these “decider” counties enjoy a diverse economic base and dynamic population that will position them to better withstand a more severe downturn. In nearly every case, these counties have lower unemployment rates than the current national average of 4.3%. Most also saw population inflows during the pandemic that, while putting pressure on local housing markets, signaled they maintain persistently desirable qualities.
And while economic mobility is just one facet of voters’ mindsets heading into the fall, it consistently remains the top concern, ahead of governmental leadership and immigration, according to the most recent Gallup Poll.
Maricopa County, Arizona (Phoenix)
- Unemployment rate: 3.8%
- Housing index: 63.5 (challenging, but not overly difficult)
- Median household income (2022): $84,000
- Bachelor’s degree attainment (2022): 21.9%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +2.2
- 2016 presidential election margin: Trump +3
During the 2008-2009 housing crisis, Phoenix became known as a focal point for the wave of home foreclosures that swept over the U.S. economy.
Today, Phoenix home prices are booming again — but there’s no sign of a crash. An influx of pandemic-era migration, mostly residents from California seeking relatively cheaper housing, has pushed home prices skyward. But demand remains steady, and thanks to a shortage of more affordable units, prices are poised to stay elevated.
Buyers need an annual income of approximately $102,000 if they’re putting 20% down on the median single-family home priced at $495,000 with a 6.85% mortgage rate, according to an NBC News analysis of Redfin data.
“Phoenix experienced much more rapid inflation than the national economy … and housing is the single biggest component,” said George Hammond, director with the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management.
“Housing affordability and where prices are at the moment is on the minds of voters in Arizona,” Hammond, who is also a research professor at the university, said.
Today, Arizona’s Central Valley has diversified away from housing toward a much more services-oriented economy, especially in health care and professional and business services. At 3.4%, the county’s unemployment rate is nearly a full percentage point lower than the U.S. average of 4.3%.
“We’ve got a very tight, dynamic labor market that has generated rapid population growth,” Hammond said.
Donald Trump won Maricopa County in 2016, but Joe Biden flipped it in 2020.
Gwinnett County, Georgia (Atlanta suburbs)
- Unemployment rate: 3.5%
- Housing index: 79.2 (very difficult)
- Median household income (2022): $84,000
- Bachelor’s degree attainment (2022): 25.2%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +18
- 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +6
Among the most diverse counties in the nation, Gwinnett now sees large populations of Asian, Black and Hispanic residents — with no single ethnicity constituting a majority.
Along with an upwardly mobile Black middle class, these dynamics have made Gwinnett a growth engine for Greater Atlanta. The county is now the regional home for multiple Fortune 500 companies, and it has an unemployment rate of 3.7%, lower than the national average.
Yet a divide now exists between Gwinnett and Fulton County, home to Atlanta’s urban core — and that has led to conflicts. For instance, Gwinnett has repeatedly declined to allow Atlanta’s MARTA transit system to expand into its boundaries. Yet while racial undertones used to lie at the heart of that conflict as “white flight” played out, today it is more of a class issue, said Tammy Greer, an assistant professor at Georgia State University’s department of public management and policy.
“It’s been challenging for continued expansion — how to have cooperative growth if everyone stays in their silo,” she said.
According to NBC News’ analysis of Redfin data, a household in Gwinnett County would need to earn about $93,000 with 20% down on the median single-family home of $450,000 at 6.85% mortgage rates.
After decades as a Republican stronghold, Gwinnett went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
Washoe County, Nevada (Reno)
- Unemployment rate: 5.1%
- Housing index: 73 (difficult)
- Median household income: $80,000
- Bachelor’s degree attainment: 19.7%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +4.5
- 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +1
For years, Reno’s economy was “dying on the vine,” according to Brian Bonnenfant, project manager for the Center for Regional Studies at the University of Nevada, Reno. A 2000 California law that allowed for tribal casinos — putting pressure on ones in bordering Nevada — and the 2008 housing crash proved further setbacks.
Today, the region’s economy has transitioned to high-end manufacturing led by Tesla, which in 2016 opened its first battery gigafactory there; Google, Microsoft and others have followed suit, setting up shop in neighboring counties. The state is also poised for new investment in a “lithium loop” designed to mine, process and recycle extracts from its lithium deposits.
“We don’t have a lot to complain about,” Bonnenfant said.
However, that has recently become less true: Washoe’s unemployment rate has surged over the past 12 months from 4% to 5%; at 5.4%, the state of Nevada as a whole now has the highest unemployment rate in the nation.
Bonnenfant says Washoe now has more residents moving in than moving out thanks to soaring housing costs elsewhere: Today, buyers need an annual income of approximately $120,000 if they’re putting a 20% down payment on the median single-family home of $583,000, according to the analysis of Redfin data.
However, rents are low and expected to drop thanks to a recent building boom in multifamily apartments.
Bonnenfant said it is only thanks to new arrivals from outside the U.S. that the county’s population has grown. Yet the largest international region of origin for Washoe is Asia, complicating the common, Hispanic-focused narrative of how the county’s voters might feel about the current immigration debate.
In 2016, Washoe County narrowly went for Clinton, but in 2020 it swung significantly toward Biden.
Miami-Dade County, Florida
- Unemployment rate: 3.1%
- Housing index: 73.5 (difficult)
- Median household income: $67,000
- Bachelor’s degree attainment: 21.3%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +7.4
- 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +29
Though infamous as a flashpoint in the 2000 election, Miami-Dade County has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1988, including for Al Gore.
However, Dade has seen its Republican vote-share climb in recent years. And during the pandemic, it became home to high-profile Republicans including Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel, America’s largest hedge fund.
That reflected a step-change in the evolution of Miami’s economy from one known for “fun and sun” to a somewhat more diverse mix of financial firms and a handful of tech groups. Thanks to surging interest from people seeking Florida’s more lax pandemic rules, the area’s economy boomed, and today Miami-Dade enjoys the lowest unemployment rate among major metros: just 2.7%.
“We have very low unemployment in the Miami area,” said Alex Horenstein, an economist at the University of Miami. “Lots of people and companies have been moving here. … The economy in Miami is good.”
Still, the area remains heavily reliant on real estate and tourism, along with health services. Yet while median wages remain relatively lower — another reason that has attracted firms — Miami now has some of the worst home affordability in the nation.
For Miami-Dade, a buyer needs an income of about $118,000 if they’re putting 20% down on a median-priced home, which comes in at $570,000.
“We need a lot more buildings in general, whether rental or for sale, to lower these high costs of housing,” Horenstein said.
In fact, the crisis is so acute that Dade has seen a large outflow of longtime residents, especially African Americans, in search of cheaper alternatives — though its population is bolstered by its status as an entry-point destination for international migrants across the Americas.
Dane County, Wisconsin (Madison)
- Unemployment rate: 2.6%
- Housing index: 75.7 (very difficult)
- Median household income: $85,000
- Bachelor’s degree attainment: 32.5%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +53
- 2016 presidential election margin: Clinton +47
Though reliably blue, Madison has become a microcosm of Wisconsin’s economic issues: more growth than it can keep up with. In particular, Epic, the nation’s most relied-upon health records management software company, and Exact Sciences, the maker of Cologuard, have spurred a hiring boom that has put unprecedented pressure on the region’s housing supply.
The area’s labor “shed,” or the areas in which the workforce now lives, “is getting bigger and bigger … and spilling into neighboring communities,” said Steven Deller, distinguished professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s department of agricultural and applied economics.
Today, putting down 20% on a median single-family home of $428,000 at 6.85% mortgage rates requires an income of $91,000 — putting it in the most-expensive 3% of Midwest counties.
That’s changing some politics surrounding Madison, Deller said.
“It used to be ‘Madison bleeds blue’ and the countryside was conservative or Regan Republican,” Deller said. “But as we’re seeing Madison spread, that’s changing the political dynamics in neighboring communities — with a shift toward the Dem side.” Even areas that were hardcore Republican, he said, are starting to become more competitive.
Kent County, Michigan (Grand Rapids)
- Unemployment rate: 4.4%
- Housing index: 78.4 (very difficult)
- Median household income: $77,000
- Bachelor’s degree attainment: 24.9%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +6.1
- 2016 presidential election margin: Trump +3
Home prices have nearly doubled in the largest metro in West Michigan since the onset of the pandemic. A county survey recently found 25% of local households now spend at least 30% of their income on housing.
Until recently, the Grand Rapids area enjoyed a booming job market with an unemployment rate as low as 2.6% in November. The region is known for manufacturing, especially auto parts plants and office furniture. Its population is also younger than average, helping to continue fueling the workforce, but also driving up home prices as local demand, especially for single-family homes, has outstripped supply, according to Paul Isely, professor and associate dean at Grand Valley State University’s Seidman College of Business.
More recently, the area has entered a manufacturing downturn, Isely said, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4%. The biggest problem is uncertainty about the future of electric vehicles, he said: Companies are unsure about whether to continue to invest in transitioning plants to EV-based parts. Further complicating matters is a reluctance by the heirs of larger family-owned businesses — a nominal strength of the area — to take over their parents’ firms, leading to fears that the businesses will get taken over by companies with less loyalty to the region.
“The housing [market] is slowing down now, and we’re seeing drops in young people,” Isely said. He continued: “It’s now about: Can we draw people into West Michigan.”
The county flipped for Biden after voting for Trump in 2016.
Erie County, Pennsylvania
- Unemployment rate: 4.0%
- Housing index: 71.9 (difficult)
- Median household income (2022): $56,000
- Bachelor’s degree attainment: 18.4%
- 2020 presidential election margin: Biden +1
- 2016 presidential election margin: Trump +2
When it comes to Western Pennsylvania, there’s Pittsburgh, and everyone else, according to Chris Briem, a regional economist with the program in Urban & Regional Analysis at the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Social and Urban Research.
Included in that Western Pennsylvania group is Erie County, a jurisdiction home to one of the poorest ZIP codes in the country: 16501, covering part of the city of Erie’s downtown.
Once boasting Griswold, which for nearly a century was America’s leader in cast-iron cookware, today Erie is among a group of areas in Western Pennsylvania that Briem says are in various stages of “managed decline.”
“Erie is caught up in the decline of old industry,” Briem said. While some new facilities, including ones for making plastics and biofuels, have sprung up, the region cannot compare with the “heads and meds” — knowledge and medical workers — that have turned parts of Pittsburgh, about 120 miles to the south, into a thriving postindustrial metropolis.
In general, there’s a stark divide in the Pennsylvania economy itself between the eastern and western parts of the state, Briem said, with the former tied largely to Philadelphia and the latter having more in common with Ohio: Briem quipped that there’s been a case to be made for calling the region “Cleve-burgh.”
It’s a phenomenon that could bolster Republicans in November, something the Trump campaign seems to have realized: A recent report suggested that Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, Trump's running mate, would spend much of the rest of the campaign in the Keystone State.
CORRECTION (Sept. 5, 2024, 12:18 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated the winning margin in Dane County, Wisconsin, for Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden won by 53 percentage points, not 7.4, and Clinton won by 47 points, not 53.
